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How many mobile 3D devices will be sold by 2015? (hint: a lot!)

May 8, 2012

I was recently asked about the total addressable market for consumer 3D devices, so I thought I’d share some of our key data points and sources:

– Today, there are ~20m mobile 3D devices and another ~30m 3DTVs worldwide (423 Digital research).

– Using forecasts from in-Stat (http://bit.ly/IObMZ2), we estimate that over 300m devices will have been sold by 2015.

– Assuming the same growth rate and a 24 mo device replacement rate, we estimate that there will be approx. 200m active 3D devices in-market WW by 2015.

– Additionally, iSupply estimates over 400m 3DTVs in-market WW by 2015 (http://bit.ly/IE1r0K).

– The reason why I’d add 3DTVs to the addressable market is due to the strong growth of “smart TV” connectivity, which of course will enable us to stream 3D content OTT to 3DTVs. Approx. 20% of all new TVs sold today are “smart,” growing to ~45% by 2014 (http://bit.ly/KcuVBd). I’d assume TV smart-ness skews higher in 3DTVs, as well.

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